More on that [Atlantic Basin] Tropical Disturbance

ShipMaven

Forever Remembered
Healthy Tropical Disturbance Roams the Caribbean

by Chris Dolce, Tim Ballisty

A tropical disturbance we've been tracking the last few days has shown some signs of increased organization.

Much of the thunderstorm activity has been firing well to the east of this broad area of low pressure located between Jamaica and Central America. However, satellite images on Thursday evening reveal an increased concentration of thunderstorms near the center.

If this concentration of storm activity persists and low pressure becomes more well defined, a tropical depression could form sometime in the next day or two. A Hurricane Hunter flight has been scheduled for Friday afternoon, if necessary.

Get the Facts: Hurricanes vs. the Oil Spill

In the near term, locally heavy rain and flash flooding are threats to the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba through late week.

Interactive map: Caribbean satellite
Interactive map: Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands radar


Caribbean satellite imagery
Click to animate

A west-northwest motion is expected to continue in the general direction of Central America and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

Along this path, water temperatures are more than warm enough (mid-80s) and upper-level winds are expected to become more favorable.


Gulf, Caribbean water temps

On average, storms form about once every two years in the Atlantic Basin during the month of June. The western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are two of the most favorable locations for this to occur.​
 
I see that today most of the tracks bring it in close to us. I just hope that they are right on the strength. We sure don't need even more oil coming our way.
 
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 251142
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF HONDURAS
AND GRAND CAYMAN CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING...AND
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

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