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ShipMaven
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Good evening, @ddicts. Attention remains focused on Fay tonight. The NHC updates are found on Cruise Q&A
What Will Fay Do ?
Tom Moore, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
8:38 p.m. ET 8/19/2008
South
Tropical Storm Fay is crawling across the Florida Peninsula.
Current forecasts have Fay reaching the Atlantic Ocean by Wednesday.
If it does it may strengthen into a hurricane.
If it doesn't it may weaken over the Florida Peninsula.
The first scenario may have serious implications on northeast Florida.
That region may have heavy rain, strong winds and even a few tornadoes over the next 48 hours.
If Fay stalls over the Florida Peninsula, it is still capable of producing flooding rain over parts of east central and northeastern Florida.
In addition, high pressure building north of Fay will tighten the pressure gradient, producing increasing wind and surf along the beaches of Georgia and northeast Florida.
[snip]
Elsewhere, a pesky area of low pressure aloft will keep the threat of rain over parts of eastern Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. Waco, Texas, had to deal with serious flooding on Tuesday evening.
High temperatures should range from the mid-70s in eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas to the mid-90s in the lower Rio Grande Valley and central Tennessee.
West
A potent weather system for August will sweep into the Pacific Northwest.
The result will be significant rain and windy conditions over areas west of the Cascades as well as in far eastern Washington, northern Idaho and extreme northwest Montana.
Snow levels over the Washington Cascades may dip to 6500 feet by Thursday morning.
The rest of the West will be dry, except for some isolated thunderstorms over the Rockies.
High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the chilly 50s in the Cascades to over 100 in Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.
Parts of Montana will be in the 90s to near 100 in some areas.
Temperatures there will cool down later in the week.
Midwest
Some of the best weather in the nation will be across the Midwest as much of the region will see mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures.
Some exceptions will include parts of eastern Kansas and southern Missouri where showers and thunderstorms will occur.
The Plains will also feature gusty winds out of the south.
High temperatures will range from the low 70s in southwest Missouri to the mid-90s in western North Dakota.
Most of the Midwest and Plains will enjoy the warm 80s.
The Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions will see above average temperatures later in the week.
Northeast
A Canadian cold front has swept the recent warmth and humidity out of the air across the Northeast.
This will lead to a cool night and early morning with temperatures dipping into the 40s over parts of Upstate New York, northern Pennsylvania and interior New England.
Wednesday highs will be on the cool side ranging from the upper 60s in northern Maine to the mid-80s in much of Virginia.
Most locations above Maryland will be in the 70s.
Temperatures will become significantly warmer again by Friday and Saturday.
<img src=http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/current/curwx_600x405.jpg>
<img src=http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/forecast/map_qpf_36hrfcst_4namus_enus_600x405.jpg>
<img src=http://image.weather.com/images/maps/forecast/forheat_ind_600x405.jpg>
<img src=http://i.imwx.com/web/forecast/us_wxlo1_large_usen_600.jpg>
<img src=http://maps.wunderground.com/data/severe/current_severe_nostatefarm.gif>
<img src=http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/travel/trvlthun_600x405.jpg>
<img src=http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/special/severe_us_600x405.jpg>
<img src=http://i.imwx.com/web/radar/us_radar_plus_usen.jpg>
=====================================
TROPICAL UPDATE
Fay May Become A Hurricane
Tom Moore, & Tim Ballisty Meteorologists, The Weather Channel
6:58 p.m. ET 8/19/2008
After making its first U.S. landfall Monday afternoon over Key West, Florida; Tropical Storm Fay made its second landfall near Cape Romano, Florida on Tuesday morning at about 4:45am ET.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the central Atlantic coast of Florida. Meanwhile, in preparation for a stalled out tropical system off the northeast Florida coast, a hurricane watch has been posted from Flagler Beach, Florida northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.
As of 7 pm EDT, Tropical Storm Fay is located about 45 miles south-southwest of Melbourne, Florida. Fay is moving to the north-northeast at just 7 mph. This northward motion is expected to continue through the night as Fay sluggishly crosses the Florida Peninsula. View Fay's projected path.
Currently, even though over land, Fay is holding up quite well with a well-defined depiction on radar. The tropical storm reached its peak intensity and overall best organization over land during the early afternoon hours of Tuesday. With the overall good appearance on satellite and radar, surface observations, and along with Fay's central pressure falling to 986 millibars, the surface winds remain at 65 mph.
At this time, Fay is battering the east-central state of Florida. This portion of the state will continue to experience squally weather with very heavy, flooding tropical downpours accompanied with some minor-to-moderate wind damage. [snip]
Though wind gusts have topped 60 to to nearly 80 mph at times in some local spots and a few isolated tornadoes have caused localized destruction, the greatest impact from Fay has been and will be the heavy rain. Spiraling bands from Fay have persistently rotated onshore along the central Atlantic coast of Florida and totals have climbed towards 10 inches. Overall, rain totals across central and south Florida will range from 5 to 10 inches although some locations may approach 15 inches of rain. Flood watches and warnings are posted for the majority of the Florida peninsula.
Radar shows Fay continues to produce moderate to heavy rainfall across central Florida. Here is a look at the rainfall that has occurred over the past 24 hours.
[size=x-large]As Fay's spiraling bands rotate onshore, it is possible for isolated tornadoes to impact the Atlantic coast of central Florida. Several tornadoes have been reported during Tuesday afternoon with a few producing moderate to major damage and/or destruction.[/size]
The extended future of Tropical Storm Fay is somewhat uncertain. The current forecast is for it to become a category 1 hurricane on Wednesday. After reaching the Atlantic, Fay should wander slowly just off the northeast Florida coast, perhaps for a couple of days, before making another landfall somewhere along the Florida or Georgia coast and then push into northern Florida or southern Georgia. Another possibility has Fay sliding moving back towards the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Either way, there is a good possibility that Fay may become a major flooding threat.
<img src=http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/tropical/map_spectrop05_ltst_6nh_enus_600x405.jpg>
<img src=http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/tropical/map_tropalrt06_ltst_5nhato_enus_600x405.jpg>
<img src=http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/tropical/map_huralrt06_ltst_5nhato_enus_600x405.jpg>
<img src=http://i.imwx.com/images/sat/caribsat_600x405.jpg>
What Will Fay Do ?
Tom Moore, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
8:38 p.m. ET 8/19/2008
South
Tropical Storm Fay is crawling across the Florida Peninsula.
Current forecasts have Fay reaching the Atlantic Ocean by Wednesday.
If it does it may strengthen into a hurricane.
If it doesn't it may weaken over the Florida Peninsula.
The first scenario may have serious implications on northeast Florida.
That region may have heavy rain, strong winds and even a few tornadoes over the next 48 hours.
If Fay stalls over the Florida Peninsula, it is still capable of producing flooding rain over parts of east central and northeastern Florida.
In addition, high pressure building north of Fay will tighten the pressure gradient, producing increasing wind and surf along the beaches of Georgia and northeast Florida.
[snip]
Elsewhere, a pesky area of low pressure aloft will keep the threat of rain over parts of eastern Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. Waco, Texas, had to deal with serious flooding on Tuesday evening.
High temperatures should range from the mid-70s in eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas to the mid-90s in the lower Rio Grande Valley and central Tennessee.
West
A potent weather system for August will sweep into the Pacific Northwest.
The result will be significant rain and windy conditions over areas west of the Cascades as well as in far eastern Washington, northern Idaho and extreme northwest Montana.
Snow levels over the Washington Cascades may dip to 6500 feet by Thursday morning.
The rest of the West will be dry, except for some isolated thunderstorms over the Rockies.
High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the chilly 50s in the Cascades to over 100 in Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.
Parts of Montana will be in the 90s to near 100 in some areas.
Temperatures there will cool down later in the week.
Midwest
Some of the best weather in the nation will be across the Midwest as much of the region will see mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures.
Some exceptions will include parts of eastern Kansas and southern Missouri where showers and thunderstorms will occur.
The Plains will also feature gusty winds out of the south.
High temperatures will range from the low 70s in southwest Missouri to the mid-90s in western North Dakota.
Most of the Midwest and Plains will enjoy the warm 80s.
The Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions will see above average temperatures later in the week.
Northeast
A Canadian cold front has swept the recent warmth and humidity out of the air across the Northeast.
This will lead to a cool night and early morning with temperatures dipping into the 40s over parts of Upstate New York, northern Pennsylvania and interior New England.
Wednesday highs will be on the cool side ranging from the upper 60s in northern Maine to the mid-80s in much of Virginia.
Most locations above Maryland will be in the 70s.
Temperatures will become significantly warmer again by Friday and Saturday.
<img src=http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/current/curwx_600x405.jpg>
<img src=http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/forecast/map_qpf_36hrfcst_4namus_enus_600x405.jpg>
<img src=http://image.weather.com/images/maps/forecast/forheat_ind_600x405.jpg>
<img src=http://i.imwx.com/web/forecast/us_wxlo1_large_usen_600.jpg>
<img src=http://maps.wunderground.com/data/severe/current_severe_nostatefarm.gif>
<img src=http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/travel/trvlthun_600x405.jpg>
<img src=http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/special/severe_us_600x405.jpg>
<img src=http://i.imwx.com/web/radar/us_radar_plus_usen.jpg>
=====================================
TROPICAL UPDATE
Fay May Become A Hurricane
Tom Moore, & Tim Ballisty Meteorologists, The Weather Channel
6:58 p.m. ET 8/19/2008
After making its first U.S. landfall Monday afternoon over Key West, Florida; Tropical Storm Fay made its second landfall near Cape Romano, Florida on Tuesday morning at about 4:45am ET.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the central Atlantic coast of Florida. Meanwhile, in preparation for a stalled out tropical system off the northeast Florida coast, a hurricane watch has been posted from Flagler Beach, Florida northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.
As of 7 pm EDT, Tropical Storm Fay is located about 45 miles south-southwest of Melbourne, Florida. Fay is moving to the north-northeast at just 7 mph. This northward motion is expected to continue through the night as Fay sluggishly crosses the Florida Peninsula. View Fay's projected path.
Currently, even though over land, Fay is holding up quite well with a well-defined depiction on radar. The tropical storm reached its peak intensity and overall best organization over land during the early afternoon hours of Tuesday. With the overall good appearance on satellite and radar, surface observations, and along with Fay's central pressure falling to 986 millibars, the surface winds remain at 65 mph.
At this time, Fay is battering the east-central state of Florida. This portion of the state will continue to experience squally weather with very heavy, flooding tropical downpours accompanied with some minor-to-moderate wind damage. [snip]
Though wind gusts have topped 60 to to nearly 80 mph at times in some local spots and a few isolated tornadoes have caused localized destruction, the greatest impact from Fay has been and will be the heavy rain. Spiraling bands from Fay have persistently rotated onshore along the central Atlantic coast of Florida and totals have climbed towards 10 inches. Overall, rain totals across central and south Florida will range from 5 to 10 inches although some locations may approach 15 inches of rain. Flood watches and warnings are posted for the majority of the Florida peninsula.
Radar shows Fay continues to produce moderate to heavy rainfall across central Florida. Here is a look at the rainfall that has occurred over the past 24 hours.
[size=x-large]As Fay's spiraling bands rotate onshore, it is possible for isolated tornadoes to impact the Atlantic coast of central Florida. Several tornadoes have been reported during Tuesday afternoon with a few producing moderate to major damage and/or destruction.[/size]
The extended future of Tropical Storm Fay is somewhat uncertain. The current forecast is for it to become a category 1 hurricane on Wednesday. After reaching the Atlantic, Fay should wander slowly just off the northeast Florida coast, perhaps for a couple of days, before making another landfall somewhere along the Florida or Georgia coast and then push into northern Florida or southern Georgia. Another possibility has Fay sliding moving back towards the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Either way, there is a good possibility that Fay may become a major flooding threat.
<img src=http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/tropical/map_spectrop05_ltst_6nh_enus_600x405.jpg>
<img src=http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/tropical/map_tropalrt06_ltst_5nhato_enus_600x405.jpg>
<img src=http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/tropical/map_huralrt06_ltst_5nhato_enus_600x405.jpg>
<img src=http://i.imwx.com/images/sat/caribsat_600x405.jpg>